Watch the Ice


Reading another report on global climate change impacts, this time written by professors Markku Rummukainen (the  Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) and Erland Källén (Department of Meteorology,  Stockholm University). They draw many conclusions, but the one striking closest to home is the alarming rate of melting ice.

Recent studies of land ice sensitivity to atmospheric warming and land ice melting rates suggest that future sea level rise may be higher than the values reported in AR4. The total sea level rise may be around one meter in the coming one hundred years. These estimates are still very uncertain

The dramatic reduction in Arctic sea ice cover during the years 2007 and 2008 could be the first observed threshold effect or “tipping point” in the climate system. A confirmation of this depends on how persistent the sea ice reduction will be in the next few years.

We want less of these

We want less of these

Overall, Rummukainen and Källén draw the conclusion that all earlier predictions seem more likely than ever to be correct, and that things are probably worse. One could also call it business as usual among scientists.

EDIT: For a more personal presentation of the Arctic, check out Baffin Babes – 80 days in the Arctic!

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2 Responses to “Watch the Ice”

  1. Robert Cumming Says:

    “Business as usual among scientists”? You make it sound like scientists usually conclude that things are worse than before, and that’s certainly not generally the case (maybe not even among climate scientists).

  2. Victor Bernhardtz Says:

    I would say it’s really the trend among climate scientists, which is what I referred to. I hope I’m (they’re) wrong, but after spending the last couple of weeks reading abstracts and reports, I’m realizing that what comes off as the general quote is that “the IPCC AR4 was right but that things look worse”.

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